2022 Housing Market 12 months In Evaluate

17 housing tendencies that outlined the 12 months, together with file residence costs and sky-high mortgage charges

The 2022 housing market was nothing wanting outstanding. The pandemic and ensuing distant work continued to outline how, when, and the place individuals purchased properties. The median U.S. residence worth hit a file excessive earlier than falling barely. Rising rents stretched renters’ budgets. Excessive inflation put elevated stress on virtually everybody. For the primary time in historical past, mortgage charges doubled within the span of only one 12 months. The listing goes on

Basically, 2022 was a response to the dramatic actual property growth in 2021. The 12 months began with a surge in costs and development throughout the board earlier than falling alongside file inflation within the fall. November and December noticed a a lot slower and seasonally-expected housing market, with year-over-year adjustments in lease costs, home costs, and rates of interest both falling or slowing down. 

Beneath is a non-exhaustive listing of information factors and visuals that outlined the 2022 housing market. 

1. Dwelling costs rose to an all-time excessive

In Might, the everyday residence bought for $430,365, a file excessive since information started in 1963, shattering 2021’s excessive of $386,000. In March, the median sale worth rose 16.8% 12 months over 12 months, the biggest proportion improve during the last 5 years. Following the pandemic, demand skyrocketed whereas provide remained traditionally low, inflicting a extreme housing scarcity and worth growth that continued all through 2021 and peaked halfway via 2022. In April and Might, mortgage charges rose to fight rising inflation, which started reversing housing tendencies from earlier within the 12 months. 

Regardless of a rapidly cooling housing market, costs are nonetheless greater right this moment than any earlier 12 months on file. 

2. San Francisco was the costliest metro space for homebuyers in 2022 

The median sale worth of a house in San Francisco was $1,505,000 in 2022, up 0.3% 12 months over 12 months. For one week in April, the median worth reached a excessive of $1,700,000, just under 2021’s all-time excessive of $1,728,000. Because the 12 months went on, costs dropped nearer to pre-pandemic ranges, which can doubtless proceed till mortgage charges fall additional.  

• Six of the highest ten costliest metros had been in California.
• Many Florida metros skilled the biggest year-over-year worth development, together with Tampa (18%), Orlando (14.9%), Jacksonville (14.7%), and Miami (14.2%).
• Tampa had the biggest year-over-year worth development of all massive metros within the nation. 

The highest ten costliest cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all properties bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t consider native median incomes and residential affordability.

3. Detroit was the least costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022

The median sale worth for a house in Detroit was $165,000 in 2022, up 3.3% 12 months over 12 months. Dwelling costs in Detroit hit $213,000 for every week in June, making it the costliest month of the 12 months however nonetheless practically 50% decrease than the nationwide median. Basically, year-over-year worth will increase in 2022 had been smaller throughout most main metros than in 2021, and development dipped additional heading into the primary week of December. 

• The highest ten least costly metros had been all situated within the Rust Belt, a geographic area close to the Nice Lakes.
• Philadelphia was the one massive metro that skilled a worth lower in 2022.
• Kansas Metropolis, MO was the eleventh least costly metro, and the primary non-Rust-Belt metro on the listing.

The highest ten least costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all properties bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t consider native median incomes and residential affordability. 

4. Hire costs rose dramatically as provide struggled to maintain up with demand

Hire costs in 2022 had been 12.8% greater than they had been in 2021. Nationwide, the median lease worth rose to $2,053 in August earlier than dipping barely, the very best on file and a 12.3% improve year-over-year. Following the pandemic, lease costs skyrocketed largely due to a lack of supply and a boom in demand, each of that are simply now balancing out.

• Median lease costs in New York rose to over $4,000, retaining its dominance as the costliest metro for renters within the nation.
• Lots of the least costly metros skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase, together with Oklahoma Metropolis (23.3%), Cincinnati (17.6%), and Pittsburgh (14.8%).
• Oklahoma Metropolis skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase within the nation.  
• Hire development has persistently outpaced wages for many years, however the most recent data states {that a} staggering 40% of renters spent greater than 30% of their revenue on lease from 2017-2021.

There are at the moment over 1.1 million rental items underneath building within the U.S., which can come obtainable for lease over the following 12 months, serving to to alleviate a part of the housing scarcity.

“We anticipate rents to fall in practically each a part of the nation by the center of 2023 as provide begins overtaking demand,” notes Taylor Marr, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist. “Whereas renters sometimes get one of the best deal in the course of the winter months as demand is decrease, rents are persevering with to ease. Due to this, there gained’t be as a lot of a seasonal improve come spring, and thus endurance for a great deal will repay. And don’t be afraid to barter; some landlords could also be open to concessions like a free month’s lease or free parking.”

The highest ten costliest cities for renters in 2022

The highest ten least costly cities for renters in 2022

Knowledge consists of the 2022 aggregated median lease costs for every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in comparison with 2021 knowledge from the identical interval. Knowledge is the median of all 0-3 bed room rental properties. 

5. Homebuyers trying to relocate favored Solar-Belt cities

24.1% of homebuyers appeared to maneuver to a unique metro in the course of the three months ending in November. That is on par with the file excessive of 24.2% within the third quarter and up from 19.1% in 2019. 

• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver to sunny, comparatively inexpensive areas, with Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Phoenix being the most well-liked locations.
• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver away from costly coastal metros like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, which topped the listing.
• 100% of properties in lots of common relocation metros skilled extreme drought previously 12 months, together with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento.

“Just like 2021, continued development in distant work and a need for housing affordability drove relocation patterns in 2022,” Marr continues. “Nevertheless, tendencies in some common locations reversed course after they grew to become too common, aggressive, and costly. Cities like Salt Lake Metropolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and San Antonio all declined in recognition in 2022.”

Knowledge is the % of Redfin.com customers looking for properties outdoors their metro. Knowledge is the 12 months median combination of a number of three month shifting aggregates and doesn’t embrace September-December. Sustain with the newest migration information right here. 

6. Inflation rose at a file tempo, affecting each side of the housing market

The costs of products and providers rose to six.48% 12 months over 12 months in November, the very best proportion since August 1982 and greater than double the speed from November 2021. The truth is, inflation charges have doubled in comparison with the earlier 12 months in each month since June. Rising costs severely restricted shopper spending and slowed practically each side of the housing market. 

• • To fight the historic inflation, the Fed raised its goal rate of interest to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
  • Skyrocketing rates of interest triggered mortgage charges to rise and elevated fears of a recession, preserving homebuyers out of the housing market.
  • Inflation rose the quickest in pandemic boomtowns due partly to the sudden soar in home costs, which is a key contributor to inflation.

Knowledge courtesy of FRED. Knowledge measures core CPI (much less meals and power) via November 2022. 

7. Mortgage charges ballooned to almost 7% in response to file inflation

After a long time of falling mortgage charges, in 2022, charges climbed to almost 7% in each October and November, greater than any level since 2002. The truth is, from October 2021 to October 2022, mortgage charges doubled in a single 12 months for the primary time in historical past. 

Because the 12 months got here to an in depth, optimistic inflation knowledge helped scale back housing rates of interest to beneath 7%.

• In common migration metros like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, greater mortgage charges and costly residence costs harm consumers probably the most.
• In Phoenix, for instance, as mortgage charges climbed in Might and June, solely 21.5% of properties had been inexpensive to consumers with a $2,500 month-to-month mortgage price range – a 28.5% drop from 2021.

Excessive inflation and rising mortgage charges typically deter consumers, however if you happen to’re capable of afford it, possession will be the higher possibility. “Homeownership is a long-term funding that may result in vital web value good points, even with charges above 6%,” advises Dean Hayes, Space Gross sales Supervisor with Bay Equity, a Redfin firm. “Mortgage charges will doubtless go down within the new 12 months, that means extra residence consumers will return to the market, creating elevated competitors and fewer room for negotiation.”

8. Housing stock rose after hitting a file low

10.7 million properties had been listed on the market via November, up 11.2% in comparison with the 9.5 million properties listed via November in 2021. Within the three months ending November 2022, the variety of properties on the market elevated by 15% 12 months over 12 months, the largest improve on file. 

As mortgage charges rose alongside inflation, extra consumers determined to remain put, permitting stock to extend. Since December 2019, stock has declined 12 months over 12 months till it lastly rose in June 2022.

“Consumers have extra leverage now than they’ve since 2010,” advises San Francisco Redfin agent Josh Felder. “Even with greater mortgage charges, if you happen to intend to remain put for longer than 5 years, it’s an excellent funding. Properties are forecast to nonetheless admire, even in gentle of present circumstances. Sellers ought to perceive that the market remains to be shifting. Properties don’t promote in 5 days, effectively over listing worth, anymore.”

Stock and provide are calculated in rolling 90-day durations, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

9. Months of provide dropped to a near-record low of simply 1.2 months

Whereas stock measures the variety of properties at the moment obtainable on the market, months of provide measures the period of time it could take these properties to promote. 4 to 5 months of housing provide is taken into account the optimum benchmark. Lower than three months of housing provide typically implies that there are extra consumers than sellers, whereas the next quantity means there are extra sellers than consumers. Stock and provide sometimes transfer collectively. 

Nationwide, months of housing provide dipped to only over 1.2 months in March earlier than slowly rebounding in the summertime. 12 months over 12 months, months of provide has declined virtually each month since January 2020. 

• As consumers retreated as a consequence of excessive inflation and rates of interest, months of provide started to develop in July and August, reaching 2.3 months of provide by September.
• In Seattle, months of provide reached a near-record low of simply 15.5 days in January and February, the bottom of any main metropolitan space.

“We’re rapidly working again towards a balanced market, which is three to 6 months of stock,” says Seattle-area Redfin agent Brian Shields. “We’ve been in a vendor’s market with lower than 5 months of stock for a number of years, till halfway via this 12 months. Consumers now have much more decisions than they did final Spring.”

Stock and provide are calculated in 90-day durations, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

10. New building took up a rising share of housing stock 

There have been 1.25 million privately-owned new properties constructed within the U.S. via November 2022, up 3% from a 12 months in the past. As inflation rose and the market slowed, builders started slowing their manufacturing to unload what they already had. 

New building has been taking on a rising portion of general housing provide since 2011, when constructing rebounded after the monetary disaster. This development intensified in 2021 and solely just lately started to decelerate. “In the event you’re a purchaser, think about new building properties,” advises Kim Stearns, a Northern Idaho Redfin agent. “Due to a listing buildup, many builders have one to 4 properties they might love to shut on and can typically provide incentives.”  

• Over 63% of recent builds had been single-family properties, up 2% 12 months over 12 months
• New building begins dropped from their peak of 164,000 in April to 111,000 in November

Knowledge courtesy of Census.gov. 

11. Dwelling gross sales fell practically 17% 12 months over 12 months 

5.62 million U.S. properties bought via November, down 16.6% 12 months over 12 months, a pointy lower from the 6.74 million bought in 2021 throughout the identical interval. Basically, between 4 and 7 million properties promote per 12 months, with the historic common sitting at just over 5 million. 12 months-over-year residence gross sales decreased in each month of 2022, with October and November posting the sharpest declines. 

• Simply 376,000 properties bought in November, down 37.4% 12 months over 12 months and a seasonally-adjusted historic low (since 2001).
• June was the busiest month with 626,641 properties bought, a 15.2% year-over-year dip.

Knowledge was collected via November.

12. Median days on market rose at a file tempo, signaling a dramatic turnaround from 2021’s breakneck tempo

In 2022, properties spent a median of simply 24 days in the marketplace, an 8.4% improve 12 months over 12 months in comparison with the 22 days in the marketplace in 2021. Since 2020, a housing provide crunch has been brought on by provide chain points, a power lack of homebuilding, and a rise in demand. In 2022, time in the marketplace ticked up as homebuilding started to catch as much as demand and excessive mortgage and inflation charges restricted consumers’ spending energy. 

“Because of a slowing economic system and layoffs within the tech sector close to the tip of the 12 months, many consumers paused their residence search as a consequence of affordability and job safety,” notes Frank Vettesse III, a San Francisco Redfin agent. “This was certainly one of many components that contributed to the dramatic slowdown in gross sales.”

• Might was the busiest month of the 12 months, with properties spending a median of simply 17 days in the marketplace.
• Within the 4 weeks ending December 4th, properties spent a median of 37 days in the marketplace, the slowest month of 2022 and the largest year-over-year slowdown on file.

13. 14% of lively residence listings skilled worth drops 

On common, 14% of lively properties on the market had worth drops in 2022, up 4.7% 12 months over 12 months. In October, 22.6% of listings had worth drops, a decades-long excessive. The truth is, from February via July, the variety of properties with worth drops rose from 5.7% to 19.5%, a record-fast improve. “The shift was dramatic,” says Christy Seaside, a Seattle-area Redfin agent. “The consumers who didn’t safe a house in the course of the top of competitors at the moment are bidding low. For instance, the identical sort of residence that consumers had been keen to supply $200,000 over listing worth at the moment are providing $200,000 beneath listing worth.” 

• In Denver, 47% of properties skilled reductions in worth, the very best proportion of any main metropolis.
• Though worth drops had been widespread, median sale costs nonetheless elevated in virtually each metro within the county. 
• Many pandemic-era migration hotspots, corresponding to Tampa, Las Vegas, and West Palm Seaside, had a big proportion of listings with worth drops as effectively.

“As sellers with stale listings grew to become more and more anxious to get their properties bought, we noticed a steep rise in worth drops via the summer season right here in Washington State,” says Darlene Haselton, a Tacoma, WA Redfin agent. “At present, properties which can be recent in the marketplace are beginning to transfer extra rapidly. As mortgage charges dip additional, in-demand properties might begin receiving a number of provides.” 

The highest 5 cities with the very best share of worth drops in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median worth drops out of all lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

14. 55% of properties had a bidding warfare

55% of properties had bidding wars in 2022, down from 64% in 2021. Coastal metros skilled the very best charges of bidding wars, together with Boston (69.8%) and Los Angeles (67.7%). 

Nevertheless, nationwide, bidding wars fell from 72% to 35% from February to November. A worsening economic system, greater mortgage charges, and a rise in provide contributed to the slowdown.

Shauna Pendleton, a Boise, ID Redfin agent, advises sellers to be affected person and await mortgage charges to drop. “Except a house is priced $100,000 or extra underneath market worth, bidding wars are largely non-existent. Our staff nonetheless hears of some multiple-offer conditions; in these circumstances, it’s sometimes a luxurious residence in a high-demand neighborhood that’s priced very aggressively.” 

The highest 5 metros with the very best proportion of bidding wars in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median proportion of bidding wars throughout lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

15. Over 30% of properties had been bought with money in 2022

30.7% of properties had been bought with all money, up 2% 12 months over 12 months. In October (the newest knowledge obtainable), 32% of properties had been paid for with all money, up 2% 12 months over 12 months and the very best share since 2014. 

• Florida was the most well-liked state for all-cash purchases, particularly Jacksonville and West Palm Seaside.
• Costly west coast metros, together with Oakland, San Jose, and Seattle, had the bottom share of all-cash purchases.

Knowledge is from a Redfin evaluation of county information throughout 39 of probably the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, courting again via 2011. Knowledge doesn’t embrace November or December.

16. Actual property traders bought practically 20% of obtainable listings, a brand new file

Vying to capitalize on the housing and rental growth, traders bought 233,701 properties in 2022 via September, a record-breaking 19.1% of all listings. Multifamily residential properties constituted the biggest proportion of investor market share, with a median of 30% of those properties being bought by traders. 

Pandemic boomtowns grew to become the biggest investor hotspots, particularly in Solar-Belt metros.

The highest 5 metros with the biggest investor market shares in 2022

Knowledge is analyzed on a quarterly foundation and consists of all property sorts except in any other case acknowledged. Whole proportion is the typical of information from January-September. Knowledge doesn’t embrace the final quarter of 2022. 

17. Luxurious residence gross sales skilled their greatest year-over-year decline on file

In 2022, there have been 258,733 luxurious properties bought within the U.S., down 27% 12 months over 12 months and the largest decline since 2012. Energetic listings dropped even additional, falling by 32.7% 12 months over 12 months. The median sale worth for a luxurious residence was $1,080,000, up 14.8% 12 months over 12 months. Costs reached their peak of $1,120,000 in the course of the three months ending Might, a 15.7% year-over-year improve. Nevertheless, worth development, listings, and gross sales slowed considerably as demand cooled later within the 12 months. 

• Within the three months ending November thirtieth, luxurious residence gross sales fell by 38.1%, the biggest drop on file. 
• Luxurious properties spent a median of 32 days in the marketplace via November, up 28.9% 12 months over 12 months
• Tampa was the quickest rising luxurious market, with costs rising by 32.3% 12 months over 12 months
• Luxurious residence gross sales declined by 47% in San Jose, the largest fall of any main metro

“In Seattle, luxurious listings noticed the biggest reductions in worth,” continues Seattle agent Christy Seaside. “Within the present market, most sellers with a worth level of $1.5 million or greater want to arrange to make their residence stand out among the many competitors. As a rule, sellers are having to barter their worth and phrases with consumers.”

Luxurious properties are outlined as the highest 5% of listings in a given market. Values are three month shifting aggregates ending on the date proven, e.g., November 2022 spans September, October, and November 2022. Knowledge doesn’t embrace the three months ending December 31. 

Wanting ahead

The 2022 housing market was chaotic, however what does Redfin predict for 2023? Learn our 2023 Housing Market Predictions to be taught extra.

All knowledge was compiled by the week ending December 23, 2022. Knowledge is aggregated from January to November and doesn’t embrace December except acknowledged in any other case. All knowledge is from Redfin, FRED, and/or public information. For questions on metrics, learn our metrics definitions web page.